Preparing Your Farm Business for El Niño
Farming has always meant working with uncertainty, and weather is one of the biggest variables you can’t control. With El Niño increasing the likelihood of dry conditions in parts of New Zealand, being prepared early can make a significant difference to how your farm business navigates the season ahead.
El Niño can bring stronger or more frequent westerly winds and drier conditions to eastern areas of New Zealand, along with increased risks of drought, water shortages, fire and heat-related issues.
While you can’t control what the weather does, you can control how prepared your business is. The key is to plan early, understand your numbers and establish the points at which you’ll need to make decisions.
Start With a Plan
MPI recommends farmers set dates for key decisions based on financial, climate, soil moisture and feed conditions.
Having these trigger points in place before conditions become challenging can help you make considered decisions rather than reactive ones.
Think about what would cause you to change course. It could be pasture growth dropping below a certain level, feed reserves reaching a particular point, cashflow tightening or water availability becoming a concern.
The important part is knowing in advance what those pressure points are – and what action you’ll take if you reach them.
Know Your Feed Position
Feed is one of the biggest considerations heading into potentially dry conditions. Having an up-to-date feed budget allows you to compare available feed against planned livestock numbers and identify potential shortages early.
MPI recommends conserving genuine feed surpluses, considering summer feed crops where appropriate and addressing forecast feed deficits early. If destocking may become necessary, think ahead about which livestock classes would go first. Keeping in touch with your livestock agent or processor can also give you more options if conditions deteriorate.
Early decisions generally give you more choices than decisions made when feed is already short.
Put Your Financial Budget to the Test
Your financial plan is just as important as your feed plan. MPI recommends having a robust and realistic financial budget and keeping it updated as conditions change.
This is where forecasting and scenario planning become particularly useful.
Consider running a few different scenarios through your numbers. What happens to cashflow if production falls? What if you need to purchase additional feed? What if stock needs to be sold earlier than planned? What happens if those pressures continue for several months?
Understanding the financial impact before it happens gives you time to consider your options, adjust expenditure and talk to your bank or advisers if required.
Keep an Eye on Water
Water availability can quickly become a significant issue during prolonged dry conditions. Prepare a water budget, monitor soil moisture and water requirements, and make sure pumps, troughs, tanks and other equipment are working as they should.
If irrigation is part of your operation, think ahead about how you would manage potential restrictions. For livestock, access to sufficient clean drinking water is essential, and requirements can increase considerably during hot, dry conditions.
Don't Make Decisions in Isolation
One of MPI’s key recommendations is to talk to the people around your farming business. Your farm adviser, bank, accountant, veterinarian, livestock agent and other rural professionals can all provide different perspectives when you’re weighing up your options. There is also plenty to learn from farmers and neighbours who have managed through previous El Niño events and dry seasons.
Having these conversations early is important. It’s much easier to consider different options when you have time on your side.
Look After Your People Too
Preparedness isn't only about feed, water and finances. Long periods of uncertainty and difficult farming conditions can take their toll on farmers, families and staff.
Keep communicating with your team, check in with neighbours and make time away from the farm when you can. If things are getting tough, organisations such as Rural Support Trust and Farmstrong are there to provide support.
Plan Early and Give Yourself Options
The weather will always be outside your control, but the way your farm business responds doesn't have to be.
A clear plan, realistic budget and well-considered trigger points can help you respond earlier and make decisions with better information.